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Estimating Kane's probability

I want to provide a rough probability estimate for Kane scoring at Wembley. He has a historically high scoring rate, with over 62 goals for England by 2023. He has also scored in five consecutive games at Wembley. If he plays 75+ minutes and is on penalties, I estimate around a 0.55 probability for mid-tier teams and 0.35 for top-tier teams. The user may just want my opinion, and it's essential to ask about the opponent for refinement while avoiding definitive claims.Crafting goal probability estimates

I want to provide an assessment of scoring probabilities without inventing numbers. I might say something like goals usually range between 1.8 and 2.6, but that’s speculative. If he starts and takes penalties against a non-top-tier defense, I’d suggest it’s nearly a 50/50 chance. Key variables include the opponent, time on the field, set pieces, and his recent form. I should also avoid stating false information about past performances as definitive facts.